By Mike Bodeen · 2 May 2016
THE NEXT ARIZONA GOLD RUSH?
It was bound to happen and it might just be underway.
There’s a lot happening in California right now that’s affecting Arizona and other Sun Belt states, and it’s not all about the upcoming primary election. A recent article from the Brookings Institute reports that census population estimates through July 2015 recently released, suggests that the Phoenix Metro area’s growth may be again starting to escalate.
The article, Migration to Sun Belt metro areas continues to surge, from The Brookings Institute, reports that census population estimates through July 2015, released last week, make plain that the Sun Belt metro migration lull has not only subsided, as was hinted at last year, but could be on a pace for substantial gains in metropolitan areas in the Southeast, Texas, and Mountain West for the remainder of the decade. These continued migration gains are especially notable in light of the ups and downs these metropolitan areas experienced since 2000 … But over the past three years, migration increases have been more consistent. This is especially notable for metropolitan areas like Phoenix and Las Vegas, which along with many Florida metro areas, were the victims of sharp downturns during the housing crisis years. One especially noteworthy dynamic for this period is the increased outflow from the coastal California metropolitan areas of Los Angeles and San Diego into Riverside further east, as well as into Las Vegas and Phoenix. These eastward flows which peaked sharply in the early 2000s, and declined during the recession, are now showing a revival.
http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2015/04/08-migration-suburbs-sun-belt-frey
Another interesting article from “NewGeography.com” illustrates more clearly some of the problems that California, my state of origin, is going through, not the least of which is 12% unemployment.
…One especially noteworthy dynamic for this period is the increased outflow from the coastal California metropolitan areas of Los Angeles and San Diego into Riverside further east, as well as into Las Vegas and Phoenix. These eastward flows which peaked sharply in the early 2000s, and declined during the recession, are now showing a revival.
http://www.newgeography.com/content/002415-the-golden-state-is-crumbling
One massive difference in this beginning spurt is that Arizona’s current growth is not just based on home construction where in years past we needed thousands of workers and thousands more supplemental jobs for everything associated with the industry. But this time around our growth might (emphasis mine) be more foundational.
And if this is the case, well, we’re going to need the housing jobs too. I quote from Michael Orr in his May 1st blog:
The Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale metro is showing 1,797 permits for single family homes for March. This is 25% higher than the 1,438 they reported for March 2015. So far this year we have seen 4,436 in the first 3 months which is up 33% from last year.
I believe you’ll start to see similar articles in the local media.