By Mike Bodeen · 3 April 2023
Once again, Maricopa County is #1 in net population growth in the nation, adding 57,000 (figures rounded) residents in 2022, per figures recently released by the U.S. Census Bureau. This is a 1.3% population increase over 2021. Domestic net migration (births, death, migration) was the component of this change.
And just as it’s no surprise that Maricopa County out-gained the rest of the counties in the country, Los Angeles County lost the most – 91,000. On top of last year’s loss of population, LA County has now lost 271,000 in just two years.
Other national losers of population were Cook County, Illinois, which came in 3rd place, losing 68,000, Queen’s County, NY, losing 50,000 (4th place) and King’s County NY, decreased by 47,000.
Three of top ten that lost population were in California, and 3 in New York. All of the top ten county’s highest growth were mostly in Texas and Florida. See the article here.
Market Continues Upward Trend for Sellers
Our weekly chart today is interesting. Hey, they all are, right? The “Days of Inventory” chart gives us some valuable perspective.
Back in 2014, we saw that the active amount of listings on the market was about 25,000 and the number of days on the market was 117. 20,000 to 30,000 homes (SFD, townhomes, condos, mobile homes) on the market is about average, at least in the last 30 years.
The bottom of our market, price-wise, was back in 2011 when we were coming out of record high inventory. Upwards of 56,000 listings were for sale in the crash era.
In 2015, the market, following the 2011 bottoming out, began moving in favor of sellers and numbered about 20,000 homes for sale. In October of 2019, we were down to 13,000. In February of 2021 we had less than 5,000 homes available to buy. That amounted to 15 days of inventory.
Listings rose again slightly, but then came back down in March of last year – one year ago, and again inventory was at less than 5,000. Then, mortgage rates began climbing into the 7% range, which combined with the higher cost of our homes, eliminated many from buying. The number of listings rose to almost 20,000 in November of 2022 – just 8 months!
Now what? When inventory (days on market) rose, we were encouraging buyers to act, that this could very well be a great “window of opportunity.” It still is. However, interest rates have been trending downwards now to the low 6% range, and our market is again reversing course. We’ve gone from almost 20,000 homes for sale and in no time, we’re down to 13,500 currently. From 80 days of inventory to 65 in the blink of an eye.
So, our lead article about Maricopa County leading the nation in net incoming migration population, helps us clearly understand, that we’re not the only ones enjoying Arizona. Demand will continue to increase, and unfortunately, supply is again dropping.
Buyer, time is no longer your ally!