By Mike Bodeen · 13 January 2025
This week, we’ll take a prognostic break to go over December’s sales figures. The affidavits of value have been counted and analyzed for Maricopa County. Active listing counts below are courtesy of the Arizona Regional MLS:
Active Listings: 20,007 vs 14,593 last year – up 37% – but down 7.3% from 21,593 last month
Under Contract Listings: 5,496 vs 5,127 last year – up 7.2% – but down 14% from 6,393 last month
There were 5,803 closed transactions, up 16% from 5,007 in December 2023 and up 7.6% from November. There were 4,414 closed re-sale transactions, up 22% from 3,622 in December 2023 and up 7.7% from November.
The overall median sales price in December was $482,733, up 4.9% from December 2023 and up 1.7% from November. The re-sale median sales price was $458,100, up 4.1% from December 2023 but down 0.1% from November.
The Monthly Average Lease Price per Square Foot for December was $1.32 PSF, while the 12-month moving average remains at $1.35 PSF.
If you’re a homeowner, there’s positive news in these numbers. Supply (expectedly) is down from the November peak. An unknown is how fast supply will grow again in January. If you’re a home buyer needing a mortgage, buying a home just became more expensive.
Closed sales numbers have improved. December’s count was up more than 13% from a year ago, although December 2024 was a low bar to cross. It’s encouraging that the annual sales count has risen to almost 72,000. much healthier than the 69,627 we saw at the end of September. However, it’s still well below the long-term average of 85,000 per year. Under contract counts remain subdued but at least we managed a 7% increase from the beginning of 2024.
“We remain on the basement edge between a buyer’s market and a balanced market. This can go either way week to week.”
We’re not going to be learning much trend-wise for the next few weeks. However, on Friday (10th), rates rose sharply responding to the latest positive jobs report. Positive for employment, not positive for long-term bond or mortgage rates. The 30-year fixed rate now stands at a 7-month high of 7.24%. The wrong direction, for sure.
The Cromford® Market Index has returned to the balanced zone between 90 and 110. We are no longer in a buyer’s market across all areas, though several outlying locations remain in the buyer’s market zone. We remain on the basement edge between a buyer’s market and a balanced market. This can go either way week to week. If we have an influx of many new listings with the higher 7%+ rates still intact, we could expect to see the market back down to a buyer’s market, as some seller’s will need to reduce their prices.
Remember, in an unaffordable market, something’s gotta give. Either personal income needs to rise, mortgage rates and/or list prices need to drop – or a combination of the three.
Finally, I’ve been tempted to address the real estate effects of SoCal’s terrible and deadly fire, which will affect many homeowners and renters, including here in Phoenix, but I believe it’s premature to do so while the still unfolding tragedy is occurring.
Market data referenced in this article comes from The Cromford Report.