By Jonathan Bodeen · 31 August 2026
The Cromford Report put out its mid-month numbers two weeks ago and one line in there grabbed my interest.
Of all the homes currently under contract in Greater Phoenix, 3.9% are in the early stages of foreclosure. In June that number was only 2.2%. In July, 2.3%. A year ago, 97.5% of the homes under contract were ordinary sales with nothing going wrong behind the scenes. Today it is 94.6%. Cromford writes that the trend is “quietly flashing amber instead of green.”
But this does not mean 2008 all over again. My dad was selling houses here long before that crash and he remembers what the buildup actually looked like. Notices of trustee sales in Maricopa County are running around 400 to 500 a month right now. Back in 2004, when the market was still healthy, we averaged closer to 1,000. We are currently sitting at roughly half of normal. And there were only 3.5 million people in this county. Today, there are 4.7 million. We are still below average.
Homes repossessed by the lender and on the market are still just 1.5% of listings under contract. That number has barely moved. What this means is that even though more owners are falling behind on their payments, they are able to sell their home on the open market, instead of having to give it up to the bank. They can do that because they have equity.
But equity only helps you while you still have time to use it. That is what we are watching.
Cromford expects a wave of new listings starting in September, which is normal for this time of year. The caveat is one month does not make a trend. In my opinion it is worth watching and not worth panicking about. Ask me again in November and I may tell you it went right back down. I hope it does.
But if you are reading this and you are two or three payments behind and not sleeping well, please call us. We are not going to talk you into listing. Sometimes staying put is the right answer.
Market data referenced in this article comes from The Cromford Report.