By Mike Bodeen · 21 July 2025
Are Both Currently Possible?
Despite having the best of intentions, the Bodeen families were enjoying Lake Tahoe and Truckee’s 85 degree days and 50 degree nights too much last week to get last week’s Market Snapshot out. But alas, we’re back in the saddle this week and so, here we go!
You know the saying, buy low and sell high. If anyone bought a Phoenix home between 2007 and 2020, and held it until now, they’ve done well. If anyone bought a home between 2009 and 2012, and held it to the present, they’ve done really well!
But what about now? Our market has, to be kind, slacked off. Prices have soared from 2020 on. Buyers today have been restricted from buying due to high prices and high mortgage rates. No argument there. The price per square foot (PSF) has gone from $180 PSF in 2020 to $284 PSF today – a 58% increase. Not far off the highest point of (see chart below) of $317 PSF in January of this year.
Now, looking at the Cromford Market Index (CMI) from 2002 to present – see chart below, which registers market activity in terms of buyer’s and seller’s markets. We are currently registering 72.3, which is among the 3 lowest readings in 24 years – the others occurred during the years of the great recession. Any reading under 90 is considered a buyer’s market. We’ve been in a buyer’s market since early February of this year.
Therefore, a buyer who would be buying today, per the CMI, would be buying a home in the 4th lowest buyer’s market in 24 years. A seller who would be selling today, per the Cromford Monthly Average Sales price, would be selling in the 4th highest PSF in 24 years.
But something seems off here. One might think that if it’s a great buyer’s market, more buyers would be buying, right? And if the market is near its peak in pricing, one would think more homeowners would be taking advantage of the high prices and putting their home on the market.
Neither is happening.
The answer remains that although it’s a buyer’s market, it’s not yet at that place where its affordable for most buyers to buy or worthwhile for most sellers to sell. Same ole, same ole! That can change, but I see buyers motivation and sellers motivation are not the same.
Buyers will come into the game when rates close in on 6%, but not homeowners. Homeowners will be holding onto their home due to their basement level 3+- percent mortgage rates. Many, perhaps most sellers won’t easily give that up. I know. I’m one of them.
Market data referenced in this article comes from The Cromford Report.