By Mike Bodeen · 6 August 2018
We’re all aware, and no doubt we’re all guilty (at least once 😉) of making statistics validate our personal agenda, and the temptation to do so for local real estate trends is great. Naturally as a local real estate professional, we want everyone to believe that the Phoenix Metro real estate communities are healthy. Good news makes for happy homeowners.
The problem is that “one man’s meat is another man’s poison.” The other man in this case is the prospective homeowner AKA, the buyer.
We can honestly say that the Phoenix Metro real estate communities are healthy – IF you’re a seller.
The data:
Active Listings: 15,686 versus 17,412 last year – down 9.9% – Advantage Seller
Under Contract Listings: 9,384 versus 10,157 last year – down 7.6% – Advantage Seller*
Monthly Sales: 8,533 versus 8,024 last year – up 6.3% Advantage Seller
Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $160.69 versus $148.75 last year – up 8.0% Advantage Seller
Monthly Median Sales Price: $265,000 versus $242,000 last year – up 9.5% Advantage Seller
*The reason why this stat is a Seller Advantage is because “Under Contract Listings” were down vs one year ago 7.6%, compared with the “active listing” count being down almost 10%!
If you’re a buyer, and especially if you’re also a renter, you’re losing ground each month you don’t buy. Some buyers are now under the impression that we’re in a bubble which may burst soon and therefore they don’t want to be caught buying at the wrong time.
Well, I don’t have a crystal ball, but I’d say based on the current growth numbers and future prognostication for population AND job growth statewide, Arizona will add 1 million in population and 500,000 additional jobs. This is not a homeowner problem. This is a buyer /renter problem.
Read: https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2018/08/06/arizona-set-to-add-500-000-jobs-during-next-eight.html
Above the $300,000 price range, sales were 27% higher than a year ago reflecting much stronger activity at the mid and high end of the market. Only the very top, over $3 million, had a weak sales month in July. Below $300,000, sales were down 5%, largely due to insufficient supply of homes under $200,000.
Mortgage Rate News:
On another note, the Freddie Mac average for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage increased for the second straight week to 4.6%, but this is still below this year’s high of 4.66% back in May. One year ago the rate stood at 3.93%.
H4P Certification:
Several weeks ago I wrote our blog on the emergence of the HECM For Purchase (H4P) conversion mortgage which enables primary home buyers over 62 to purchase a home for up to almost $700,000 by putting 50% down and never having to make a mortgage payment again – ever. If this is something you would like more info about, please contact me, as I’m now H4P certified and can steer you in the right direction for the facts regarding this amazing loan product.