By Mike Bodeen · 26 December 2022
Mortgage Rates Continue Drop
Week to week, the Phoenix Metropolitan residential real estate market continues to change. As we near the end of 2022, all sorts of market predictions are happening about what mortgage rates will do and how our local market will perform. Spoiler alert: No one knows!
The Cromford Market Index (CMI) has (for now) been reversing course and is showing seller gains over the past few weeks. Of the 17 largest cities in the valley, the CMI is now showing 15 of the 17 cities improving for sellers. (See Chart below)
Per Cromford, most of the improvement has been because of declining supply. 5 cities, Phoenix, Chandler, Glendale, Tempe and Gilbert are in or nearly in the balanced market range. And the higher-end cities of Fountain Hills, Cave Creek, Scottsdale and Paradise Valley remain in a Seller’s market.
Mortgage News Daily has reported that mortgage rates have dropped more than a full point from November 9th and are now in the mid 6% range, compared with 7.37% on October 20th.
What we “think” we know from past historical Valley experience is that there will be an increase of new listings in January and February which will give us a good idea of where our supply side will go. If rates begin to drop into the high-fives, look for significant buyer activity to pick up.
Personally, I think that January and February could turn out to be the best months to buy should rates stay where they are at or lower more.
Get ready buyers. We should be nearing our peak supply season in January and February and combined with lower rates, it might be the time to find that right home for you.
For next Monday’s Snap, Jonathan and I will give you our best opinion of where we think 2023 will take our Phoenix-Metro real estate market.
Market data referenced in this article comes from The Cromford Report.