HomeSmart Elite Group

Licensed REALTORS® with HomeSmart Elite Group  ·  Scottsdale, Arizona

Equal Housing Opportunity REALTOR®

Foreclosure Notices Rising But Don’t Buy the Hype

The Wall Street Journal on Friday had a lead article titled “Americans are Falling Behind on their credit card debt.” Indeed, per the article, 13% of all credit card debt was 90+ days in arrears – the highest level in 15 years.

On another front, you will no doubt start to hear or read about how foreclosure notices have risen over 500% in our Phoenix Metro communities. This is a factually true statement but don’t buy the hype. Context is key.

“As a comparison, from 2008 to 2011 5,000-10,000 foreclosure notices were filed each and every month. Half lost their homes.”

Five years ago, in June of 2021, Phoenix Metro foreclosure notices (Notice of Trustee Sale) hit a near basement level of only 75 foreclosure notices (see chart below). Now, foreclosures have risen to 495 this month – a 561% increase. The highest in 7 years – this is also factually true.

But now, look at our chart below, and compare it over 25 years. What you see in fact is a strong housing market, if gauged against foreclosures. As a comparison, from 2008 to 2011 5,000 to 10,000 foreclosure notices were filed each and every month. Half lost their homes.

And there are good reasons why this is so:

Current mortgage rates are higher than the buying public is comfortable with, 78% of existing home mortgage rates are at 5% or less. These low rates have been a big protection in an inflationary economy, such as we’re currently experiencing.

Most homes that purchased when these cheap rates were available, got in on much lower priced homes, thereby building protective equity.

Our economy is doing okay with a relatively stable unemployment rate.

Of course, things can change. The job market, currently holding its own, can go south. The uncertainty of how AI will impact jobs is front and center in today’s national/global discussion. Inflation continues to be a threat toward our cost of living. And even a rising plague (Ebola) in Africa is catching the world’s health leader’s attention. Oh, and by the way, we’re embroiled in a middle east conflict we don’t know how to end.

But for now, foreclosures in Phoenix are not a story to lose sleep over – that is unless it’s happening to you or someone you know – then it matters a great deal. Fortunately for most, there are options. If this is a concern to you, you’ve got our number. We can help.