By Mike Bodeen · 8 July 2019
If you’re a part of the Greater Phoenix Metro Chamber of Commerce, a California firm looking to relocate to a business friendly climate, or a local business-person wanting to be a part of a vibrant growing business culture, look no further than Arizona, and specifically Phoenix. This is the place to be! We are doing well by almost any standard!
So Mike, what’s the problem? Isn’t this every state’s goal? Dream? To have a healthy local economy of rising wages, low unemployment, and a seemingly ready workforce in place to absorb the increased demand to do business here? Yes, most states would love that to be their reality.
“time is running out for some buyers and renters.”
But there is a problem. The Bodeen team has been gently and not-so-gently sounding the alarm for several years as we’ve observed rents continue to climb, hitting an all-time rental price per-square-foot (psf) record last month while rental supply is not keeping up with demand. We’ve also observed healthy home value appreciation since 2011, rising reasonably almost every year since then.
This combination (higher rents / higher sales prices) is affecting and will continue to affect renters and first time home-buyers making it more difficult to afford.
The most recent sales numbers are in for May and June with both months setting home sales records at a time where we’re at record low inventories of homes for sale. In my limited economic understanding, this says to me supply and demand will continue to dictate home and rental values. This is good news for owners. However, time is running out for some buyers and renters.
Here are recent numbers (compliments of the Cromford Report:
Active Listings: 15,442 vs 16,101 last year – Down 4.1% – Down 8.5% vs last month
Under Contract Listings: 11,230 vs 10,455 last year – Up 7.4% – Down 6.0% vs last month
Monthly Sales: 9,463 vs 9,234 last year – up 2.5% – but down 10.1% from last month
Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft: $172.30 vs $163.43 last year – up 5.4% – Up 0.2% from last month
Monthly Median Sales Price: $279,000 vs $268,000 last year – up 4.1% – Up 0.4% from last month
Comford Report’s Take:
“The most unusual change during June was the 8.5% drop in active listings which lurched from 5.3% higher than 2018 on June 1 to 4.1% below 2018 on July 1. Much of this decline was due to the low number of listings activated during June – 8,731 is our current count, the second lowest number for June since 2001 and down 11% from June 2018. On top of a very busy month for contracts and closings this has caused the supply to tighten dramatically. The monthly median sales price of $279,000 is a new record high. The annual median sales price is also at a new record high at $268,000.”
Market data referenced in this article comes from The Cromford Report.