By Mike Bodeen · 14 August 2023
We have some interesting charts for your perusal today – at least I think they are.
The chart below, which is a 6 Month Moving Average Sales Price PSF, shows our peak at $299 PSF in August 2022 – one year ago, and hitting bottom in February 2023.
(Note: The Cromford Report states that “the moving average chart is preferable to the monthly average chart because the moving average over a longer time period allows us to create a smoother graph and thus see trends more clearly.”)
My takeaway from these stats shows our Phoenix Metro market recovering PSF (price per SqFt) at a very healthy pace from the bottom of the market this past February 2023 ($274 PSF) to the current $284 PSF. The current PSF then, has regained one-half of the full loss of value since February – in just 6 months.
Individually, our cities have recovered to various degrees – anywhere from still showing a loss of -5.3% in Arizona City (where?) to a 13.7% increase in Paradise Valley.
The chart below shows us the Valley’s top 40 cities rate of increase or decline over the past year. 15 cities have increased in value, 25 have not.
Here are the top 5 cities based on annual appreciation, measured using the annual average PSF:
Paradise Valley +13.7%
Carefree +8.4%
Coolidge +6.2%
New River +4.8%
Fountain Hills +4.5%
While at the other end we find:
Arizona City -5.3%
Florence -3.8%
Litchfield Park -3.8%
Sun City West -3.6%
El Mirage -3.5%
Even the cities that are showing the continued largest value declines are still relatively moderate.
Does this all mean we’re in a healthy market? I would say we are healthier, but in terms of supply, demand, and affordability – we’ve got work to do.
Market data referenced in this article comes from The Cromford Report.