By Mike Bodeen · 16 February 2026
Home Listings Increase; Advantage Buyers
Coming out of President’s weekend, we’re looking at mortgage rates we haven’t seen in almost 3 years. The 30-year fixed rate has dropped to 6.04%. The 30-year FHA rate and the 15-year conventional have settled in at 5.61%.
Will these rates spur more buyers? No doubt. Also in buyer’s favor, is the increase in listing inventory, now at around 22,500, the highest amount for a February in the past 10 years. The more listings that are on the market, the more competition there is among sellers which will pressure prices to lower.
Prices have lowered and continue to lower, but the rate of their price drop is minute. The chart below shows the Greater Phoenix Median price movement since 2022. If we only look at that, we’d say, valley-wide, prices haven’t moved much at all; maybe 1.5 – 2.0% increase per year since Feb 2022. When you consider that in light of a market with 7% mortgage rates and higher priced homes, that is amazing. I’d say our market has cooled, leveled out, but itching to start back up again.
The Cromford Report has introduced a new report that we’re liking, as it gives a good look at our Phoenix Metro market on a regional basis rather than the entire valley. The numbers below tells us how pricing has done in the past *four* years, by region:
| **Region** | **Median Q2 – 2022** | **Median Q1 – 2026** | **Change %** |
| — | — | — | — |
| Central Phoenix | $410,000 | $399,500 | -2.6% |
| North Phoenix | $499,000 | $465,000 | -6.8% |
| Northeast Valley | $850,000 | $960,000 | +12.9% |
| Pinal | $375,000 | $325,000 | -13.3% |
| South Phoenix | $440,000 | $409,500 | -6.9% |
| Southeast Valley | $510,000 | $466,000 | -8.6% |
| West Phoenix | $364,000 | $325,000 | -8.0% |
Viewing the regional numbers shows us distinctly that all regions, except for the Northeast Valley has seen the monthly median sales price drop – by up to 13% (Pinal County) and risen by 13% in the Northeast Valley. But keep in mind that these numbers are over 4 years, so the actual annual drop is not much.
For pricing to reverse course and head north, more buyers need to enter the market to reduce listing inventory. That can begin to happen depending on buyer’s response to lower mortgage rates and lower prices.
But for now, buyers are in a good position.
Market data referenced in this article comes from The Cromford Report.