By Mike Bodeen · 7 October 2024
September Market Numbers and Rate Reversal
Well, October has arrived, but it’s still acting like August. At least the early mornings are wonderful; emphasis on “early.”
That’s a segue of sorts to our current local real estate market conditions – about the same as last we talked, and about the same we talked before that, and about…(uh, you get the picture).
Our recent data from the Arizona Regional MLS, courtesy of The Cromford Report, shows September’s sales numbers remaining quite stable. They show:
Active Listings: 19,643 vs 13,404 last year – up 47% – and up 6.6% vs 18,430 last month
Under Contract Listings: 7,261 vs 6,499 last year – up 11.7% – and up 9.1% vs 6,658 last month
Monthly Sales: 5,447 vs 5,573 last year – down 2.3% – and down 4.9% vs 5,730 last month
Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft (PSF): $284 vs $285 last year – down 0.3% – and down 2.1% from $290.53 last month
Monthly Median Sales Price: $442,000 vs $432,000 last year – up 2.3% – and up 0.5% from $440,000 last month
Monthly Average Lease Price PSF: $1.37. Down from $1.40 last month. Average PSF since April 2022: $1.35.
Cromford Market Index (CMI): 94.9 vs 98.8 last month (90-100 is balanced market)
“And then, the Fed lowered its rate last week, and voila, rates reversed course and started back up, especially Friday following a much stronger ‘jobs report’ than expected, where the 30-year fixed rose from 6.26% to 6.53% – in one day!”
The balanced market that we’re still experiencing (CMI), continues to slowly trend lower towards a buyer’s market. Along with mortgage rates that were trending downward, it was continuing to look more favorable for buyers. And then, the Fed lowered its rate last week, and voila, rates reversed course and started back up, especially Friday, following a much stronger “jobs report” than expected, where the 30-year fixed rose from 6.26% to 6.53% – in one day!
This strong rate reversal is why we spent much of last week’s Snapshot explaining that mortgage rates don’t follow the Fed’s rate, but more closely mirrors the direction of the 10 Year US Treasury which reacted to the inflationary news by jumping significantly.
So, the CMI (Cromford Market Index) lowering, responded to the continued rise in active listings, which are up 9% from last month and 47% from last year. Monthly sales are down 2.3% from one year ago and down almost 5% from last month.
Prices are remaining fairly stable. The average Sales price PSF remaining virtually the same last year, but down 2.1% from last month. The monthly median sales price ($442,000) is up 2.3% from last year, and slightly higher at 0.5% from last month.
Single family rents have remained stable for almost 2.5 years now, at an average of $1.35 per square foot. So we could conclude that “shelter costs” in Phoenix have at least temporarily for its part, ceased to increase our local inflation rate.
Market data referenced in this article comes from The Cromford Report.