By Mike Bodeen · 21 December 2020
Working remotely from home, kids not in school, social distancing, ad infinitem, could be adding up to a huge change in the Phoenix Metro Real Estate market. I’m calling it PHX 2.0.
Through surveys, studies, and articles, experts are presently trying to figure out what all this real estate change will mean for 2021 and beyond.
One year ago we were discussing real estate trends upcoming for 2020. Most of us talked about mortgage interest rates slowly rising, new home construction moderately increasing, and the changing palette of colors becoming popular in kitchens. To date, I’ve not seen anything anywhere remotely discussing an upcoming worldwide pandemic. Nothing. Nada. Zip. Zilch. Zero.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) recently had a 2020 Real Estate Forecast Summit which discussed the nation’s Top Ten Metro Markets. The NAR Research Group labeled the Summit findings, “Top Ten Markets During and in a Post Covid Environment in 2020-2021.” Each market was discussed. Unsurprisingly, Phoenix landed in this top ten discussion.
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Arizona
The Phoenix metro area attracted the largest number of movers from West Coast metro areas. It’s the third largest destination of movers, next to Dallas and Atlanta. In 2018, nearly 200,000 people moved in Phoenix, of which nearly 29,000 or 14.5% were from West Coast metro areas. A high fraction of workers, 7.9%, work from home. Next to Dallas, it has the second largest share of multi-generational households, at 4.5%.
Read the report here: https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/top-ten-markets-during-and-in-a-post-covid-19-environment-in-2021-12-10-2020.pdf?ct=t%28The_SAAR_News_Dec+13_2020%29
As professional Realtors, we’ve thought for a long while that multi-generational living would increase year by year as we boomers and our parents age. Well, as it turns out, perhaps not as much as we thought. We seem to like our independence, so whereas there has been a multi-gen living increase, what has increased even more is assisted living facilities. Now, however, that trend may change and increase.
This NAR report based on the Covid-19 pandemic, forces us to consider the location, size, and type of homes people will find to be optimal social and familial living in this new real estate age. It notes that, “a retired family member (grandmother for example) can assist in child caring, enabling a family member to produce income while decreasing expenses such as childcare.
As an example, the study noted that in 2019, 6% of the nation’s workforce worked remotely from home, compared with 35% of the workforce working remotely from home this past May, 2020 – and as much as nearly 80% among education, community services, and tech workers. This has resulted in family chaos where school aged families reckon with lost income, and needing day-care.
The study considered 8 indicators, including:
1) Fraction of the workforce working from home (2019)
2) Share of multi-generational households (2019)
3) Net domestic migration in a metro area (2019)
4) Movers from expensive West Coast areas moving into another metro area (2018)
5) Unemployment rate (September 2020)
6) Share of workers in retail trade, leisure and hospitality industries (2019)
7) Small business openings relative to January 2020 (Nov 2020)
8) Mobility to retail and recreation places relative to January 2020 (Nov 2020)
Our family did exactly this a few years ago. Needing to provide a home for our single-mom daughter and her school aged girls, we moved to a larger single level split floorplan that could accommodate their family and ours. Though formerly empty nesters, we upscaled in price and size. The good news on that front is that as I type, the girls are packing to move into their new home tomorrow with Kendra’s new husband!😊
Though we could downsize, our reality is that Karen’s 87-year-old mom will no doubt shortly move in with us where she will get the west wing to herself. At least the toothpaste arguments will cease. 😉