By Mike Bodeen · 18 September 2018
The number of pending sales (under contract) for the Phoenix Metro market is typically slow this time of year. Sales peak in Spring and early summer and then slide the remainder of the year.
September Pending sales this year are no different except it’s the slowest September Pending reading since 2007. It’s down 13% from the second lowest September Pendings month, which was last year. Low listing supply remains the crux of the problem plus decreasing affordability as prices keep rising.
The luxury home market however, is seeing much stronger growth in demand for luxury listings this year than in 2017. We compare sales during the first 2 weeks of September:
Total sales (all types) – 2,864 in 2018, 2,556 in 2017 – up 12%
Under $250K – 1,310 in 2018, 1,357 in 2017 – down 3%
$250K to $400K – 1,033 in 2018, 814 in 2017 – up 27%
$400K to $800K – 427 in 2018, 317 in 2017 – up 34%
$800K and up – 94 in 2018, 68 in 2017 – up 38%
There seems to be no evidence there of declining demand for move-up and luxury homes, per Mike Orr of the Cromford Report. Entry level sales are down a little but that could be due to the limited availability of homes to buy at that price level.
August 29 – The national S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® number are now out for the sales during April through June. Comparing with last month, here is how the 20 featured metropolitan areas fared:
Las Vegas +1.39%
Detroit +1.04%
Minneapolis +1.04%
Cleveland +0.99%
Boston +0.85%
Chicago +0.77%
Phoenix +0.74%
Seattle 0.73%
Portland +0.70%
Miami +0.66%
Atlanta +0.65%
San Diego +0.60%
Tampa +0.60%
Denver +0.60%
Charlotte +0.55%
Washington +0.55%
Los Angeles +0.53%
San Francisco +0.47%
Dallas +0.39%
New York -0.07%
Of note is that Phoenix Metro’s sales prices are rising faster (about 9% annually) than the usual west coast leaders such as Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego. Well, perhaps that West Coast bubble has begun.
Mike Bodeen
Market data referenced in this article comes from The Cromford Report.