By Mike Bodeen · 30 March 2026
But so Do Oil and Mortgage Rates
As we’ve stated before, it’s a good thing for buyers when the supply of listings increases. Likewise, when supply decreases, it’s good for homeowners/sellers. In normal markets, when supply increases and demand is low, a buyer’s market takes place which usually results in home price drops.
Well, supply continues to rise and demand remains lower than the supply growth. But we remain in a buyer’s market. Sales and sales prices are increasing.
Sales also increased this past month. Listings under contract (most current market gauge) are at their highest point for this date since 2022. The Cromford Market Index (CMI) has been in buyer’s market territory for 5 months.
What really baffles me is the rise in the median sales price. The median price had been floating around $450,000 since February of 2024 until it recently hit the highest median price ($462.000) since the inflammatory price increases of the first half of 2022. Further, listings under contract have increased by a thousand since last month – a 12% increase. What gives?
“Inflation is crouched at our door. And unless the war is quickly settled with oil flowing freely and safely, all bets of lower rates are off.”
Buyers have wisely stepped-up their buying. Certainly, the lowering of mortgage rates to just under 6% pre-Iranian war, had much to do with that. And then, when the Mideast (oil) war broke out, rates launched.
If you recall, last week we said, “Yes, rates could come back down, but that may be a fool’s bet. Should we instead be asking whether or not 6% to 7% rates may be the norm.”
What will a sustained war do to our market? It will significantly slow sales and pretty much assure an increased buyer’s market. Now the question to ask may be, can we see rates head towards 8% or more? Yes we can. Inflation is crouched at our door. And unless the war is quickly settled with oil flowing freely and safely, all bets of lower rates are off.
What will a sustained war do to our market? It will significantly slow sales and pretty much assure a heightened buyer’s market. I would normally say that prices will drop. I mean, that’s the norm of things, but our market is anything but normal.
But with rates now approaching 7% (6.6%) locking in a current rate might be where the smart money is – if such a thing exists.
Market data referenced in this article comes from The Cromford Report.