By Mike Bodeen · 14 January 2026
*Can they drop further?*
I was about to write my annual New Year’s real estate projections today which include a look back to see how we got things right or not last year, and a look ahead as to what might be of benefit to buyers and sellers.
But alas, this will need to wait:
* Active Listings: 22,248 vs 20,007 last year – up 12% – but down 9.0% from 24,653 last month
* Under Contract Listings: 5,782 versus 5,496 last year – up 5.2% – but down 20% from 7,191 last month
* Monthly Sales: 6,374 vs 5,576 last year – up 14% – and up 18% from 5,396 last month
* Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft: $304 vs $303 last year – up 0.3% – and up 2.4% from $297 last month
* Monthly Median Sales Price: $455,000 vs $450,000 last year – up 1.1% – and up 1.1% from $450,000 last month
* There were 1,205 closed new homes, down 13.2% from 1,388 in December 2024 but up 11.1% from November.
* The new home median sales price was $539,087, up 1.1% from December 2024 and up 1.8% from November.
* Rentals in Phoenix Metro continue to plod along. The average monthly lease price per square foot (PSF) is $1.35 which has remained constant since 2022.
* The number of rental listings have dropped from 6393 in November 2025 to 5404 currently.
Sales prices are up slightly year over year reinforce confidence in the market but improves affordability because median household incomes rose faster than home prices last year.
Everything now depends on how trends develop during January. Will we see a strong flow of new listings (as we did in 2025) or will supply remain subdued as it was in the last 2 months? Will demand benefit from interest rates which are currently lower than almost the whole of 2025?
“Overall, things look good for buyers and better for sellers than they experienced during most of last year. But the next few weeks are key to whether that outlook holds.”
Greater Phoenix’s housing market has out-performed low expectations since October and the Cromford® Market Index is currently heading back towards the balanced zone between 90 and 110.
Overall, things look good for buyers and better for sellers than they experienced during most of last year. But the next few weeks are key to whether that outlook holds.
Speaking of interest rates, rates have dropped to their lowest levels in years as President Trump announced the purchase of $200 Billion in MBS. Can they drop more? Yes, but time will tell on that one.
This could be a market rekindling few saw coming.
Market data referenced in this article comes from The Cromford Report.