By Mike Bodeen · 1 May 2023
5 Months Improving Conditions for Sellers
The unique thing about the Cromford Market Index Chart (below) is that it is a “predictive” tool that we use to give the earliest indication of a change in the market direction.
On the first of December 2022, the index hit a low point of 88.1. But then it began to reverse course. The index has continued upward for the past 5 months and now resides at 143.3. The peak was 511 in March 2021 – just over 2 years ago.
The current market as of today, May 1st, is showing the following compared to the last quarter. We would say that these numbers are in real time:
Active Listings: 12,720 – Supply Down 21%
Listings under contract: 9,810 – Contracts Up 25%
Sales Per Month: 7,746 – Sales Up 88%
Days on Market for Sales: 73 – DOM Down 6%
Months of Supply: 1.6 vs 3.9 – MOS Down 59%
Active Listings Price Per Square Ft (psf): $357 – Up 6%
Under Contract psf: $305 – Up 3%
You may be reading other stories, especially nationally, stating prices dropping. Remember, all real estate is local. Arizona, Phoenix metro in particular, is it’s own market. The S&P Case-Shiller Index which is 2-3 months behind in their reporting is a lagging indicator and is just now beginning to show this turn-around, but it’s already been happening.
Rental Prices Stabilizing?
The monthly average lease price per SqFt (PSF) in the Arizona Regional MLS (ARMLS) showed a peak price of $1.40 last August (2022). Since then it’s dropped to $1.32, and then increased and has now settled in at $1.35 PSF.
The stats from the ARMLS long term rentals are a smaller share of the overall market, but they do provide us with a trend. And the trend has more or less stabilized. In July of 2021, the PSF was $1.33 and has fluctuated up and down since then.
This stability is good for the market. Probably means that the frenetic bidding wars/multiple offers for rentals has died down and perhaps nearing the new normal.
Market data referenced in this article comes from The Cromford Report.