By Mike Bodeen · 5 November 2018
October Sales Report
The source of local real estate statistics matter. My first pass at writing today’s column was on our changing market slowing towards balance, which is down from our multi-year seller’s market. These numbers are based on our local Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) statistics listed below.
Following that I reviewed the Cromford Report’s Daily Observations for today, November 5th. I had to re-write my column. Why? Because the numbers changed and challenged the outcome of my thinking. Here’s why:
Read the following, which is the basic ARMLS numbers for November 1, 2018 comparing them with November 1, 2017 for all areas & types, including single family detached, condos, townhomes, etc.:
Active Listings: 17,953 vs 18,646 last year – down 3.7% – but up 6.7% from 16,819 last month
Under Contract Listings: 8,128 vs 9,403 last year – down 13.6% – and down 6.3% from 8,679 last month
Monthly Sales: 7,315 versus 7,422 last year – down 1.4% – but up 3.4% from 7,073 last month
Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $165.35 vs $150.55 last year – up 9.8% – and up 2.6% from $161.23 last month
Monthly Median Sales Price: $262,000 versus $246,000 last year – up 6.5% – and up 0.8% from $260,000 last month
Based on these ARMLS numbers, we see a changing market, especially regarding the number of sales completed in October vs last year, which would indicate a drop in demand. In the ARMLS stats above, sales were down 1.4% from last year.
This is where different statistical sources can upend our market conclusions. Fortunately, the Cromford Report also faithfully publishes the sale counts each month as reported by Maricopa County, not just ARMLS. These show us not just the sales that happen on the open market via ARMLS, but also what we would think of as private sales, or sales not listed on ARMLS.
It turns out that when we factor in these sales not typically seen in the open market, there has actually been some modest annual growth in sales, whereas looking at only ARMLS numbers showed a decline.
Based on the county numbers, October saw 9,042 sales for single-family and condo residences, up 1.7% from October 2017. New homes sales were up 5.9% while re-sales were up only 1.0%.
The reason the public recordings show more growth are:
90% of new home sales do not get recorded in the ARMLS database and these are still showing a healthier trend than re-sales.
90% of iBuyer purchases do not get recorded in the ARMLS database and these are well up from 2017 levels. (ibuyers are large portfolio investment buyers such as OfferPad and OpenDoor who pay cash, on significantly discounted single family property values)
October’s fall in MLS sales was more severe in Pinal County (-8%) than in Maricopa County (-1%)
So why does the market still appear to be slowing for residential sellers? Because there are fewer buyers looking at the typical supply of available homes! If you’re a seller, you may have noticed showings slow down. Though admittedly this is typical with the Holiday season, it does appear more severe than normal. The pool of buyers (same as last year) are purchasing more new homes rather than re-sale and the lack of reporting with the ibuyer sales takes away the sales numbers from the MLS. With the increase of new listings, sales are being spread around.
– Mike Bodeen
Bodeen & Hopkins HECM For Purchase Seminar This Thursday
Several months ago we devoted our entire Monday Snap Shot Blog to HECM For Purchase Loans (H4P). This is a Very Little-Known FHA Guaranteed Mortgage that can provide those of us over 62 a loan that will NEVER HAVE A MORTGAGE PAYMENT EVER AGAIN WHILE EITHER BUYER LIVEs IN THE HOME.
H4P is a retirement strategy that my wife Karen and I are pursuing for ourselves. This is not a gimmick loan, but it is not for everyone. Check out the official government HUD link, but we would especially encourage you to come to the Anthem Civic Center this Thursday for a one-hour presentation that could possibly change your economic life – in a positive way.
Check This out! https://www.hud.gov/program_offices/housing/sfh/hecm/hecmhome
~ Thusday, November 8th ~
Anthem Civic Center
3701 W. Anthem Way, Anthem, AZ 85086
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Market data referenced in this article comes from The Cromford Report.