By Mike Bodeen · 5 May 2025
Buyers to Benefit
We’ve been tracking the listing market regularly for quite some time now. This is giving us our best view of current and future trends in Phoenix Metro.
Our listings, as of May 3rd total 26,337 in listing compared with 24,720 last month – a 7% rise. That’s a large rise. Listings under contract have dropped to 8572 compared with 8872 last month – a 3% drop. Sales also dropped slightly, from 7129 vs 7237.
Supply and demand, (See chart below) which had been semi-balanced this past year (2024) is more widely separating and now we’re seeing its effects in actual price drops.
“As the media begins to report price depreciation, and it will, homeowners en masse (have historically) decided to put their homes on the market before things get worse. Unfortunately, that makes things get worse. I know. I’ve seen these movie clips too often in my career. This re-run is no fun.”
The following line chart plots the Cromford® Supply Index against the Cromford® Demand Index on a monthly basis from 2001 onwards. When supply exceeds demand (as between 2006 and 2009) then prices are under downward pressure. When demand exceeds supply (as in 2020), prices are under upward pressure. (All stats with thanks to the Cromford Report)
Prices continue lower, helping buyers, even though mortgage rates remain stubbornly near 7%! This past month, the price per square foot (PSF) has dropped for active listings from $363 to $359. The PSF for listings under contract has dropped also, from $327 to $323. The inevitable gravitational pull will continue downward.
The monthly sales price PSF has dropped from $311 in April to $298 currently – a 4% drop in just one month. Monthly appreciation for PSF is now registering a minus 3.1%. The median sales price has dropped from $458,000 to $445,000 this past month – a 3% drop
For sellers, it could worsen before it improves. As the media begins to report price depreciation, and it will, homeowners en masse (have historically) decided to put their homes on the market before things get worse. Unfortunately, that makes things get worse. I know. I’ve seen these movie clips too often in my career. This re-run is no fun.
Market data referenced in this article comes from The Cromford Report.