By Mike Bodeen · 4 September 2018
Here and now:
Regarding the current pool of homebuyers in the Phoenix Metro area, sometimes “ya gotta do whatcha gotta do.” As we see active residential listing inventory remaining low, and down over 7% compared with last year we continue to urge prospective homebuyers to get pre-approved with an excellent lender to move towards ending buyer wanna-be to buyer happily.
Our most recent market update highlights the continued dearth of available listings and an almost 8% increase in the monthly average sales price per square foot compared to 2017. We’re still seeing rental prices escalating as well.
…we continue to urge prospective homebuyers to get pre-approved with an excellent lender to move towards ending buyer wanna-be to buyer happily.
Looking back:
Here are the most updated Valley sales numbers available for September 1, 2018 and comparing them with September 1, 2017 with thanks to the Cromford Report. This is for all properties and areas:*
Active Listings 16,222 vs 17,486 last year – down 7.2% – but up 3.4% vs 15,686 last month
Pending Listings: 5,262 vs 6,002 last year – down 12.3% – and down 6.9% vs 5,655 last month
Under Contract Listings: 8,871 vs 9,871 last year – down 10.1% – and down 5.5% vs 9,384 last month
Monthly Sales: 8,230 vs 8,252 last year – down 0.3% – and down 3.7% vs 8,548 last month
Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft: $161.10 vs $149.47 last year – up 7.8% – and up 0.2% from $160.76 last month
Monthly Median Sales Price: $262,000 versus $245,000 last year – up 6.5% – but down 1.1% from $265,000 last month
“New listing counts were slightly lower than last year, so the market is actually a bit smaller in unit counts, both from a supply and a demand perspective. Dollar volume however has increased. In fact, 2018 is likely to out perform every previous year in dollar volume, even 2005, the peak of the bubble. The main cause of this is that a far higher percentage of sales are going through the MLS compared with 2005 which saw over 40% of home sales completed outside the MLS,” reports Michael Orr of the Cromford Report.
Looking ahead:
Our concern is that unless there is a significant event to the economy contrary to what we’ve been seeing, new listing prices will take a major step upward come the first of the year. The good news is that more listings will come on the market as they seasonally do. The not good news is that the new prices will be well escalated.
Why? As we (and everyone else) have been reporting, Phoenix Metro, Maricopa County, and Arizona are near the top of the fastest population growth areas in the country. We are simply not keeping up with the supply of homes for newcomers. Supply and demand will continue to rule the day.
Mike Bodeen
*The best determinate of value is a professional market analysis of your home in your home’s neighborhood. These statistics suggest larger population trends.
Market data referenced in this article comes from The Cromford Report.