By Mike Bodeen · 8 September 2025
A Perfect Storm for Buyers?
Once again, thank you for my title and song Mr. Dylan. Sorry for my amendments. As I read the lyrics again on this (even now) prophetic song, I’m obviously relating it to our local real estate market, whereas Bob was seeing a generational and cultural shift in our nation during the 60’s. The comparison is not great, but then again, who knows for sure?
But I have once again digressed – somewhat.
As we suggested last week, our current buyer’s market may have officially ended in early July, though the residue of our slow malaise-like market will continue on, at least probably for the rest of 2025. The Cromford Index has (for now) bottomed out and is slowly rising toward seller’s territory.
But let’s first get caught up to date with a look at August’s Phoenix Metro sales numbers both from the Arizona Regional MLS (ARMLS) and Maricopa County records. We’ll look at current activity in ARMLS, then we’ll view **new home stats** from Maricopa County, then lastly we’ll go back to ARMLS to view the present trend of **local rentals**.
* **Active Listings:** 23,238 vs 18,430 last year – up 28% – but down 2.2% from 24,091 vs last month.*Seller Trend*
* **Under Contract Listings:** 7,260 vs 6,658 last year – up 9.0% – but down 1.5% from 7,369 last month. *Buyer Trend*
* **Monthly Sales:** 5,900 vs 5,727 last year – up 3.0% – but down 4.7% from 6,193 last month. *Buyer Trend*
* **Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft:** $281 vs $288.98 last year – down 2.7% – and down 1.3% vs $284.84 last month. *Buyer Trend*
* **Monthly Median Sales Price:** $442,540 vs $440,000 last year – up 0.6% – and up 0.1% from $451,995 last month *Slight Seller Trend*
**New Home August Stats for Maricopa County (Not ARMLS)**
* There were **1,308** **closed new homes**, down 10.0% from 1,453 in August 2024 but up 3.9% from July.
* The **new home median sales price** was $534,998, up 4.2% from August 2024 and up 0.6% from July.
**ARMLS Residential Lease Stats for August**
* August Residential **Rental Lease Price Per Square Foot**: $1.42. Up from $1.38 in July.
* Active MLS **Rental Listing Counts**: 6,302. Up from 6,258 in July.
**So how are things changing?**
Friday September 5th marked a pronounced downward move in mortgage rates. The 30-year conventional fixed rate mortgage lowered to 6.29% – a 0.16% drop from the day before. The 15-year mortgage dropped to 5.6% while FHA and VA dropped to the low 6% range. Rates we haven’t seen for almost a year, and then, only briefly.
“Buyers right now have a unique opportunity to catch sellers in a buyer’s market AND getting a lower morgage rate. Most sellers are open to negotiation – as they should be.”
Market trends are currently mixed. We’re seeing the Cromford Market Index beginning to swing back to a Seller’s market, though cautiously and slowly. With the large mortgage rate drop Friday, which was in expectation of the Fed reducing the Fed Funds rate later this month, it’s unknown if rates will continue to improve for buyers. Due to the poor jobs reporting this week, and the increasing possibility of moving into a recession, our bet for now is a continued rate decline.
This will make for (opinion) a strong change in some buyers buying homes. Obviously, buyers will benefit from lower rates, but a bigger question remains about the current price of homes? Are they still too high? Is there still an affordability issue based on the price of homes that as of yet, won’t be matched by lower mortgage rates? At what mortgage rate will the sidelined buyer pool go all in?
I believe change is starting now and will increase with the further lowering of rates. Buyers right now have a unique opportunity to catch sellers in a buyer’s market AND getting a lower mortgage rate. Most sellers are open to negotiation – as they should be.
Is now a “perfect storm” for buyers?
I wouldn’t bet against it!
Market data referenced in this article comes from The Cromford Report.