By Mike Bodeen · 31 March 2025
It’s always dicey to prognosticate. But more and more Jonathan and I are being asked that question from friends and clients. Naturally we want to be upbeat, yet at the same time we want to tell what we believe to be true. Of course, the watermelon size caveat, is that we, or anyone else, doesn’t know what that future holds, so much grace is sought.
Yet, we have clues. We have statistical trends. We have reasoning ability, albeit at times I might question that last statement😉.
AND, we have the Cromford team with the finest statistical residential real estate data for Phoenix Arizona, perhaps in the world – I kid you not.
“Indeed, the downward arc of 2025, though still decreasing deeper into a buyer’s market, appears that it may level out, especially if you compare the rate of decline in 2022.”
This week, we’re looking at the Cromford Market Index, which The Cromford Report defines as the following:
*The Cromford Market Index is a value that provides a* ***short-term forecast*** *for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years.* ***Values below 100 indicate a buyer’s market****, while* ***values above 100 indicate a seller’s market****. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.*
Viewing the chart, you can see that back in 2022 we were in a mega Seller’s market with the index almost hitting 480. It peaked in mid-February of that year and began its downward descent, roller coaster-like. The index stayed in a Seller’s market until the end of 2023 where it hung out in a balanced market until the fall of 2024. In the first week of 2025, the market descended into a buyer’s market where it has continued to drop for the past two months.
Indeed, the downward arc of 2025, though still decreasing deeper into a buyer’s market, appears that it may level out, especially if you compare the rate of decline in 2022. That leveling out will depend on supply and demand balancing out. Currently, though supply and demand are both increasing, supply is winning the race. What we don’t know right now is of course, the direction of mortgage rates. They have been lowering this month and if that continues, or at least doesn’t vault too high, I think we’ll see more buyers stepping into the market.
The next question then is, will we see more sellers put their home on the market to take advantage of more buyers in the market.
What do I think? Pass the dice, please.
Mike Bodeen
Market data referenced in this article comes from The Cromford Report.