By Mike Bodeen · 1 September 2025
Yes – At Least for Now, But for How Long?
Happy Labor Day! I think it should be Happy Un-Labor Day. The Old Testament Sabbath, which was Friday sundown to Saturday sundown (Shabbat), was a day of rest, as God rested from His labors of creating the world in 6 days and on the 7th, took a long nap. But I’ve digressed right off the bat😉 Let’s try again.
If our buyer’s market has bottomed out and is now heading towards positive seller’s territory, we could point to week 26, two months ago, at the 4th of July weekend. You can see on the tail end of the chart slight upward movement (See the CMI or Cromford Market Index chart below). But how long will it last?
History shows that Phoenix Metro’s largest down market (31 months) occurred between March 2005 to October 2007 (see same chart above). Interestingly, in September 2006, the market bottomed out and headed back up for 4 months, but it was a false bottom. Instead it again reversed itself and headed down further to October 2007 where the true bottom was.
Since that time, the market has gone up and stayed over “balance” in Seller territory for almost 15 years! But it too may have had a false bottom, as the market appeared to have bottomed out in December ’22 and rose to it’s last peak in July ’23. For the most part it headed down to the 4th of July weekend.
“…we think mortgage rates will continue lower for at least the short term. This will (should) increase sales activity. How low they go is another no one knows, but we’re keeping a positive outlook.”
Again, we ask how long it will last? Could it be a long upward trajectory as history has most often shown towards a seller’s market, or another false bottom? Ah, pass the crystal ball, please. On second thought…
The Bodeen Team thinks there will continue to be an upward move of the market towards a seller’s market, initially due to downward mortgage pricing. The 30-year mortgage rate has dropped to its lowest level of 2025 to around 6.5%. There is mostly positive “talk” of the Fed lowering the Federal Funds rate this month. Though mortgage rates are more a function of following the Ten-Year U.S. Treasury Note, the Fed Funds rate is an indicator of which way the market is moving and hence the long-term mortgage market.
All this is to say that we think mortgage rates will continue lower for at least the short term. This will (should) increase sales activity. How low they go is another no one knows. We’re keeping a positive outlook.
We think Fall will continue the rise. May it be so!
Market data referenced in this article comes from The Cromford Report.