By Jonathan Bodeen · 25 May 2026
A few months ago, mortgage rates briefly dipped below 6%. Buyers who had been waiting started coming back out. Open houses had more traffic. Contracts were getting signed. Things felt like they were turning.
Then the war in Iran started. Within weeks, the bond market reacted. Bond yields rose sharply. What many people do not realize is that it is the bond market, not the Fed, that actually impacts mortgage rates day to day. When bond investors get nervous and sell, yields climb, and 30 year fixed rates climb with them.
According to the Cromford Report, rates are now sitting at 6.75%. We have not seen that number since July 2025.
So where does that leave us?
The Phoenix market itself is holding up well. Monthly sales are up 5.4% from this time last year. Homes under contract are up 7.7% year over year. The median sales price is $450,000, up from $445,000 a year ago. These are not alarming numbers. By most measures they are solid.
The problem with rising rates is not just purchasing power, but the phsycology of it.When rates are falling, buyers feel urgency. When rates jump back up, people pause. They wonder if they should wait a little longer. That’s what I think we’re seeing right now.
If you have been waiting for rates to drop before buying, this week should give you something to think about. Rates touched below 6% earlier this year and then reversed course quickly. Fannie Mae now says they do not expect rates to fall below 6% at all in 2026. Waiting for a better number is a real strategy, but it comes with real costs too.
When rates do eventually come down, more buyers will enter the market quickly. We have seen this happen before. The less competitive conditions we have right now may not last.
For sellers, the story depends heavily on where your home is. The Cromford Report tracks the 18 largest Phoenix cities, and 9 of them are still firmly in seller’s market territory. Fountain Hills, Chandler, Scottsdale and Phoenix proper are all well above the line. If you have been considering a move, it is worth a conversation sooner rather than later.
The outer suburbs tell a different story. Goodyear, Surprise, Queen Creek and Maricopa have all shifted toward buyers, and the right approach in those areas looks quite different.
The Iran situation is hard to forecast. So is the bond market. But the fundamentals here in Phoenix are real, and the best decisions we have seen people make are the ones based on good information rather than good luck.
Give us a call anytime. We are happy to help.
Market data referenced in this article comes from The Cromford Report.