By Mike Bodeen · 28 July 2025
Where are We Now?
Well, unless you’ve been hiding under a rock, or not reading Mike’s Monday Snapshot, you’re well aware of a continued Buyer’s Market the Phoenix Metro real estate market is in – as is most of the country.
Phoenix Metro home sales peaked in June of 2021 (see chart below) at which time closings began dropping – significantly in May of 2022.
And, in no surprise, also in 2022, the 30-year mortgage rate increased rapidly from an average of 2.96% in 2021 to 5% in April of 2022. This higher rate level had not been seen since 2011. But rates continued climbing to end 2022 at 6.5%. They reached near 8% in 2024, but have remained fairly steady in 2025 at about 6.84%. This current rate has done nothing to help buyers jump into the market.
Another interesting chart which reports “Closings Per Month – Above List Price” aids us to better understand our market temperature. The Cromford Report shows that when listings sell 21% above list price, it is a normal, balanced market. However, when 24% these listings sell above list, this is considered hot. See 2021-22 for example, when 55% to 60% of our listed homes sold over list price.
The other end of the spectrum says that when sales prices close under 18%, the market is cold. We are currently looking at a July reading of 13.4% – well below the 21% average. Burrr!
Of course, none of this surprises us, but we can expect a market heat-up when mortgage rates drop down to affordable levels – whatever that is.
Until then, we’ll keep the fires burning.
Mike Bodeen
Market data referenced in this article comes from The Cromford Report.